Childhood and Adolescent Central Nervous System Tumours in Spain: Incidence and Survival over 20 Years: A Historical Baseline for Current Assessment.

BACKGROUND: Central nervous system (CNS) neoplasms are highly frequent solid tumours in children and adolescents. While some studies have shown a rise in their incidence in Europe, others have not. Survival remains limited. We addressed two questions about these tumours in Spain: (1) Is incidence increasing? and (2) Has survival improved? METHODS: This population-based study included 1635 children and 328 adolescents from 11 population-based cancer registries with International Classification of Childhood Cancer Group III tumours, incident in 1983-2007. Age-specific and age-standardised (world population) incidence rates (ASRws) were calculated. Incidence time trends were characterised using annual percent change (APC) obtained with Joinpoint. Cases from 1991 to 2005 (1171) were included in Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, and the results were evaluated with log-rank and log-rank for trend tests. Children's survival was age-standardised using: (1) the age distribution of cases and the corresponding trends assessed with Joinpoint; and (2) European weights for comparison with Europe. RESULTS: ASRw 1983-2007: children: 32.7 cases/106; adolescents: 23.5 cases/106. The overall incidence of all tumours increased across 1983-2007 in children and adolescents. Considering change points, the APCs were: (1) children: 1983-1993, 4.3%^ (1.1; 7.7); 1993-2007, -0.2% (-1.9; 1.6); (2) adolescents: 1983-2004: 2.9%^ (0.9; 4.9); 2004-2007: -7.7% (-40; 41.9). For malignant tumours, the trends were not significant. 5-year survival was 65% (1991-2005), with no significant trends (except for non-malignant tumours). CONCLUSIONS: CNS tumour incidence in Spain was found to be similar to that in Europe. Rises in incidence may be mostly attributable to changes in the registration of non-malignant tumours. The overall malignant CNS tumour trend was compatible with reports for Southern Europe. Survival was lower than in Europe, without improvement over time. We provide a baseline for assessing current paediatric oncology achievements and incidence in respect of childhood and adolescent CNS tumours.

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data.

When responding to infectious disease outbreaks, rapid and accurate estimation of the epidemic trajectory is critical. However, two common data collection problems affect the reliability of the epidemiological data in real time: missing information on the time of first symptoms, and retrospective revision of historical information, including right censoring. Here, we propose an approach to construct epidemic curves in near real time that addresses these two challenges by 1) imputation of dates of symptom onset for reported cases using a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and 2) adjustment for right censoring using the NobBS software package to nowcast cases by date of symptom onset. This process allows us to obtain an approximation of the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in real time. We apply this approach to characterize the early SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in two Spanish regions between March and April 2020. We evaluate how these real-time estimates compare with more complete epidemiological data that became available later. We explore the impact of the different assumptions on the estimates, and compare our estimates with those obtained from commonly used surveillance approaches. Our framework can help improve accuracy, quantify uncertainty, and evaluate frequently unstated assumptions when recovering the epidemic curves from limited data obtained from public health systems in other locations.

Helicobacter pylori Antibody Reactivities and Colorectal Cancer Risk in a Case-control Study in Spain.

Background: Several studies have suggested that Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC), while others have not confirmed this hypothesis. This work aimed to assess the relation of CRC with H. pylori seropositivity and with seropositivity to 16 H. pylori proteins, in the MultiCase-Control study, MCC-Spain. Methods: MCC-Spain is a multicase-control study carried out in Spain from 2008 to 2013. In total, 2,140 histologically-confirmed incident CRC cases and 4,098 population-based controls were recruited. Controls were frequency-matched by sex, age, and province. Epidemiological data were collected through a questionnaire fulfilled by face-to-face interviews and a self-administered food-frequency questionnaire. Seroreactivities against 16 H. pylori proteins were determined in 1,488 cases and 2,495 controls using H. pylori multiplex serology. H. pylori seropositivity was defined as positivity to ≥4 proteins. Multivariable logistic regression mixed models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results:H. pylori seropositivity was not associated with increased CRC risk (OR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.71-1.16). Among H. pylori seropositive subjects, seropositivity to Cagδ showed a lower CRC risk, and risk decreased with increasing number of proteins seropositive. Seropositivity to the most recognized virulence factors, CagA and VacA, was not associated with a higher CRC risk. No statistically significant heterogeneity was identified among tumor sites, although inverse relations were stronger for left colon cancer. An interaction with age and sex was found: H. pylori seropositivity was associated with a lower CRC risk in men younger than 65 and with a higher risk in older women. Conclusions: Our results suggest that neither H. pylori seropositivity, nor seropositivity to the virulence factor CagA are associated with a higher CRC risk. A possible effect modification by age and sex was identified.

Reducing Monte Carlo error in the Bayesian estimation of risk ratios using log-binomial regression models.

In cohort studies, binary outcomes are very often analyzed by logistic regression. However, it is well known that when the goal is to estimate a risk ratio, the logistic regression is inappropriate if the outcome is common. In these cases, a log-binomial regression model is preferable. On the other hand, the estimation of the regression coefficients of the log-binomial model is difficult owing to the constraints that must be imposed on these coefficients. Bayesian methods allow a straightforward approach for log-binomial regression models and produce smaller mean squared errors in the estimation of risk ratios than the frequentist methods, and the posterior inferences can be obtained using the software WinBUGS. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in WinBUGS can lead to large Monte Carlo errors in the approximations to the posterior inferences because they produce correlated simulations, and the accuracy of the approximations are inversely related to this correlation. To reduce correlation and to improve accuracy, we propose a reparameterization based on a Poisson model and a sampling algorithm coded in R.

Fluid intake and the risk of urothelial cell carcinomas in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

Results from previous studies investigating the association between fluid intake and urothelial cell carcinomas (UCC) are inconsistent. We evaluated this association among 233,236 subjects in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), who had adequate baseline information on water and total fluid intake. During a mean follow-up of 9.3 years, 513 first primary UCC occurred. At recruitment, habitual fluid intake was assessed by a food frequency questionnaire. Multivariable hazard ratios were estimated using Cox regression stratified by age, sex and center and adjusted for energy intake, smoking status, duration of smoking and lifetime intensity of smoking. When using the lowest tertile of intake as reference, total fluid intake was not associated with risk of all UCC (HR 1.12; 95%CI 0.86-1.45, p-trend = 0.42) or with risk of prognostically high-risk UCC (HR 1.28; 95%CI 0.85-1.93, p-trend = 0.27) or prognostically low-risk UCC (HR 0.93; 95%CI 0.65-1.33, p-trend = 0.74). No associations were observed between risk of UCC and intake of water, coffee, tea and herbal tea and milk and other dairy beverages. For prognostically low-risk UCC suggestions of an inverse association with alcoholic beverages and of a positive association with soft drinks were seen. Increased risks were found for all UCC and prognostically low-risk UCC with higher intake of fruit and vegetable juices. In conclusion, total usual fluid intake is not associated with UCC risk in EPIC. The relationships observed for some fluids may be due to chance, but further investigation of the role of all types of fluid is warranted.

Estimation of dietary sources and flavonoid intake in a Spanish adult population (EPIC-Spain).

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies have suggested associations between flavonoid intake and health benefits. Traditional Mediterranean diets consist of a high consumption of plant products rich in flavonoids. OBJECTIVE: This study estimates dietary flavonoid intake and main food sources in a Mediterranean population (Spanish adults). DESIGN: The study included 40,683 subjects aged 35 to 64 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study Spanish cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerized version of a validated diet history method. Expanded US Department of Agriculture databases for the flavonoid, isoflavone, and proanthocyanidin content were used. RESULTS: The median and mean of total flavonoids were 269.17 and 313.26 mg/day, respectively. The most abundant flavonoid subgroup was proanthocyanidins (60.1%), followed by flavanones (16.9%), flavan-3-ols (10.3%), flavonols (5.9%), anthocyanidins (5.8%), flavones (1.1%), and isoflavones (<0.01%). The main sources of total flavonoid intake were apples (23%), red wine (21%), unspecified fruit (12.8%), and oranges (9.3%). CONCLUSIONS: These results should be very useful for evaluating the relationships between flavonoid intake and several diseases.

Concentrations of resveratrol and derivatives in foods and estimation of dietary intake in a Spanish population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort.

Resveratrol has been shown to have beneficial effects on diseases related to oxidant and/or inflammatory processes and extends the lifespan of simple organisms including rodents. The objective of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of resveratrol and piceid (R&P) present in foods, and to identify the principal dietary sources of these compounds in the Spanish adult population. For this purpose, a food composition database (FCDB) of R&P in Spanish foods was compiled. The study included 40,685 subjects aged 35-64 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerised version of a validated diet history method. An FCDB with 160 items was compiled. The estimated median and mean of R&P intake were 100 and 933 microg/d respectively. Approximately, 32% of the population did not consume R&P. The most abundant of the four stilbenes studied was trans-piceid (53.6%), followed by trans-resveratrol (20.9%), cis-piceid (19.3%) and cis-resveratrol (6.2%). The most important source of R&P was wines (98.4%) and grape and grape juices (1.6%), whereas peanuts, pistachios and berries contributed to less than 0.01%. For this reason the pattern of intake of R&P was similar to the wine pattern. This is the first time that R&P intake has been estimated in a Mediterranean country.

Fruit and vegetable intakes, dietary antioxidant nutrients, and total mortality in Spanish adults: findings from the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Spain).

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic data suggest that persons with diets rich in fruit and vegetables are at a lower risk of several chronic diseases and mortality than are persons with diets poor in fruit and vegetables. Often, this effect is attributed to antioxidant micronutrients found in plant foods. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess the relation of mortality to the consumption of fruit, vegetables, and other plant foods and to the dietary intake of vitamin C, vitamin E, and carotenoids. DESIGN: The study was a prospective study in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. During 6.5 y of follow-up, 562 deaths occurred in 41 358 subjects aged 30-69 y. Proportional hazards regression analysis was used to assess the relation between dietary factors and total mortality. RESULTS: After adjustment for age, sex, and several potential confounders, the hazard ratio for the highest versus the lowest quartile of consumption was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.62, 1.00; P for trend = 0.029) for fresh fruit, 0.72 (0.56, 0.91; P for trend = 0.006) for root vegetables, and 0.77 (0.60, 0.98; P for trend = 0.015) for fruiting vegetables (ie, vegetables that contain the "fruit" part of the plant, the seeds). The corresponding figures for antioxidant nutrients were 0.74 (0.58, 0.94; P for trend = 0.009) for vitamin C, 0.68 (0.53, 0.87; P for trend = 0.006) for provitamin A carotenoids, and 0.65 (0.51, 0.84; P for trend 0.001) for lycopene. The effect of vitamin C and provitamin A disappeared after adjustment for total antioxidant capacity in plant foods. CONCLUSIONS: A high intake of fresh fruit, root vegetables, and fruiting vegetables is associated with reduced mortality, probably as a result of their high content of vitamin C, provitamin A carotenoids, and lycopene. Antioxidant capacity could partly explain the effect of ascorbic acid and provitamin A but not the association with lycopene.

Association of nut and seed intake with colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

A link between unsaturated fatty acids or phytonutrients and reduced risk of colorectal cancer has been suggested. However, the effects of higher intake of dietary sources of these nutrients, such as the nuts and seeds food group, are less clear. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of nut and seed intake on colorectal cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study, a large prospective cohort study involving 10 European countries. Total nut and seed intake was determined from country-specific dietary questionnaires. The data set included 478,040 subjects (141,988 men, 336,052 women) with a total of 855 (327 men, 528 women) colon and 474 (215 men, 259 women) rectal cancer cases. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, stratified by center and controlled for fruit intake, dietary fiber, energy, height, weight, sex, age, physical activity, and smoking, was used. The data show no association between higher intake of nuts and seeds and risk of colorectal, colon, and rectal cancers in men and women combined, but a significant inverse association was observed in subgroup analyses for colon cancer in women at the highest (>6.2 g/d) versus the lowest (nonconsumers; hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.95) category of intake and for the linear effect of log-transformed intake (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.98), with no associations in men. It is not evident from this data why there may be a stronger association in women or why it may be limited to the colon, suggesting that much further research is necessary.